ANALYSIS: Soaring demand drives Airbus to plug freighter gap - Flightglobal

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ANALYSIS: Soaring demand drives Airbus to plug freighter gap - Flightglobal

Airbus's decision last week to launch a passenger-to-freighter conversion programme for its A330 twinjet was long overdue. The airframer's own global market forecast for freighters, issued last year, predicts demand for a total of 2,731 cargo aircraft over the next 20 years, split between 834 new-builds and 1,897 conversions.

Yet until last week's announcement, Airbus had addressed that demand solely with its new-build A330-200F. Although that programme has arguably under-performed, accumulating just 69 orders to-date, Airbus believes that section of the market still holds considerable sales potential.

Again, the global market forecast offers a clue to the airframer's thinking. It predicts that most of the growth in that 20-year period will come in the mid-size freighter market occupied by the A330. That equates to a total of 1,327 units, with potential for around 900 conversions according to the forecast.

Demand will be driven both by growth in the cargo market and the need to replace older aircraft. In fact, Airbus says around 570 aircraft will need to be replaced in the mid-size sector alone.

Likely candidates for replacement by the A330 P2F are the Boeing MD-10F/McDonnell Douglas DC-10, and at the lighter end, the Airbus A300 and A310 freighters, all of which still have a significant global presence. Flightglobal's Ascend Online database lists 81 MD-10Fs in active service, 198 A300 freighters and 54 A310 freighters. The vast majority of the three types are operated by US express carrier FedEx. Closer analysis of its fleet using Ascend shows the Memphis company operating a total of 73 MD-10Fs - both -10Fs and -30Fs - with an average age of over 33 years. There are also substantial numbers of A300Fs (71) and A310Fs (45) in its fleet, with an average age of 19.5 and 25.5 years, respectively.

Boeing lists the


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